Evidence for Elite Convergence in Cross National Homicide Victimization Trends, 1956 to 2000

The paper introduces us to the two main perspectives in cross national comparative criminology and in doing so, lays the foundation for the unmasking of a central question in this realm. It is worthwhile to explore the contrasting views espoused by modernization and conflict, the two dominant schools of thought in cross national criminology. While the modernization perspective endorses convergence of crime rates for all nations, the conflict perspective goes a bit further by providing us with a demarcation between developing and developed countries. The researcher finds it eccentric, perhaps even shocking that this debate has not been given the scrutiny that it merits. He also presents us with a third plausible explanation: the elite convergence model, one that predicts the inevitable convergence of crime rates in developed countries.
The civilizing process in Western Europe culminated in lower crime rates, a historical fact that corroborates the notion of convergence argued by the modernization school of thought. That said, exceptions abound and such an aberration is pointed out by Fukuyama. The Europe in the 1960s was plagued with turbulence but it is worth bearing in mind that such an increase in crime rates still comes under the umbrella of convergence.
The conflict perspective holds the inequality fostered by globalization as culpable for the emergence of developing countries as crime hubs. Given the exploitative global economic order, developing nations sink deeper into the abyss of poverty which explains the burgeoning levels of crime. Although this thesis suffers from an acute shortage of statistical material, it does provide a potent explanation that vividly captures the ground reality.
The three major sources of cross national data are the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol), United Nations and the World Health Organization (WHO).Interpol has the distinction of being the world’s largest international police organization. Interpol manages a range of databases with information on names and photographs of known criminals, wanted persons and DNA profiles. Likewise, the World Health Organization collects statistical data which can be used in relation to cross national homicides.

The study uses econometric time series methods to work on 23 developed and 11 developing countries over a period of 44 years (1956 to 2000). Homicide data has been selected owing to its greater presumed validity. Data availability determined the countries included and the length of the series, a constraining factor that meant that some countries could not be studied with full detail. Countries with missing data like Iceland and Bulgaria (before 1960) were excluded from the analysis. The 34 countries in the study are dominated heavily by North America and Western Europe and they comprise less than 18 percent of the world’s population. The World Development Report is used to identify high and low income countries.

If the convergence rates for a developed country and Bulgaria are to be compared, the following formula is used:

Log (industrialized nation homicide rate) t- (Bulgarian homicide rate) t

The application of this formula generates a separate series of logged and differenced scores for each. Convergence is checked by subtracting the smaller from the larger of the two rates. The resulting scores are divided into three categories: stationary, trend stationery and difference stationery. Given that the stationery time thesis has a mean that remains constant over time, it goes on to represent the null hypotheses which depicts neither convergence not divergence. The slope becomes paramount as a negative slope symbolizes that the homicide rates are converging while a positive one illustrates diverging homicide rates. For the difference stationary series, the intercept helps us discern the trend in homicide rates.

The research findings go on to show that the mean homicide rates for low income countries are a staggering three and a half times greater than the mean of high income nations. Regional differences are also visible in the shape of the lower rates for Western Europe as opposed to Latin America. The evidence refutes both the conflict and modernization perspectives in their claim that the homicide rates for high and low income nations will diverge or converge respectively. The elite convergence model gets credence from the fact that 17 of the 23 high income countries have homicide rates that closely match the high income homicide mean. (Exceptions are Japan and Australia).

The researcher does identify some blemishes in his study, the most notable of which is the under representation of developing countries in the study sample. This is followed by his recognition of the constraining influence of dearth of time and the paucity of useful data. Although a strong case can be made for the elite convergence model, it would not hurt to have more research conducted. The paper ends with a rather ironic tone, one that elucidates how the ‘Industrial Man’ only lives in a selected group of developed nations.